2026-07-08
Daily Report
2026-07-08
Energy led the session at +1.76%, while Materials lagged at -2.62%, with ITB -3.97% setting the thematic tone.
SPY -0.31% QQQ +0.28% 15 qualifying setups
Market Signal
RISK ON
Score 0.80
Generated
2026-07-09 08:00
Static build timestamp
Leaders
Energy
Best-performing sector today
Lagging
Materials
Weakest sector on the tape
Overview
Index & Macro Snapshot
Core benchmarks, volatility, and curve shape for the session.
S&P 500
$745.40
-0.31% today · +9.69% YTD
Nasdaq 100
$711.44
+0.28% today · +16.31% YTD
Russell 2000
$293.48
-0.91% today · +18.46% YTD
Dow Jones
$522.77
-1.07% today · +8.90% YTD
VIX
16.90
+2.74% over 5d
10Y Treasury
4.57%
Long-end benchmark
2Y Treasury
3.72%
Policy-sensitive front end
2s/10s Curve
+85bps
Normal / steepening
Tape Read
What's Moving Markets Today
Daily strategist letter and the cross-sector spreads behind today's tape.
Strategist Letter · 2026-07-08
Morning Note
The tape is trading risk on (composite score +0.80), with SPY -0.31%, QQQ +0.28% and IWM -0.91% on the session. Universe breadth sits at 62% above 50-day and 64% above 200-day, and VIX prints 16.90 (+2.7% over five sessions). At the GICS sub-industry level, leadership concentrated in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing (+6.70%), Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals (+5.25%), Internet Services & Infrastructure (+3.40%), Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (+3.03%). On the laggard side, Consumer Finance -5.17% headed the weak list. No industries crossed into the Leading RRG quadrant in the last five sessions. Cross-asset color: the dollar (UUP) -0.14%; long bonds (TLT) -0.22%; high yield (HYG) -0.13% — credit stress tightening; crude (USO) +3.02%; gold (GLD) -0.81%; bitcoin (BITO) -2.43%. The 2s10s curve sits at +85bps. Risks worth tracking: watch the recent death-cross prints in Restaurants, Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods; and 200-day breaks in Automotive Parts & Equipment, Aerospace & Defense, Construction Materials; the breadth tape shows 8 new stock-level golden crosses against 8 death crosses. Catalysts in the wires: on geopolitics: 'Dow slides more than 570 points as oil spikes and Trump threatens another attack on Iran: Live updates' [CNBC]; on Fed / macro: 'Fed officials were split on direction of interest rates at last meeting, minutes show' [CNBC]; on AI / tech: 'Micron stock jumps 15% as soaring prices from AI boom lead to quadrupling of revenue' [CNBC]; on energy: 'From panic to pricing in: Are markets past 'peak fear and sell-off' despite oil price surge?' [CNBC]. Positioning takeaway: lean into Energy pockets where breadth is improving and trim exposure in Materials until 200-day support is reclaimed.
Cyclicals vs Defensives
mixed
Cyclicals (-0.89%) are leading Defensives (-1.06%) by 0.18pp.
Mixed leadership — the tape can't pick a regime.
Discretionary vs Staples
risk-off
XLY -1.78% vs XLP -0.55% (spread -1.23pp).
Consumer rotating defensive — Staples bid is a late-cycle warning.
Semis vs Software (AI capex theme)
risk-on
SMH +1.99% vs IGV -1.75% — spread +3.74pp.
Hardware/infrastructure leg of AI is bid — capex theme intact, hyperscaler spend cycle on.
Energy vs Utilities
neutral
XLE +1.76% vs XLU -0.74% — spread +2.50pp.
Inflation reflation/commodity bid; favours real-asset exposure and pricing-power names.
Small caps vs Large caps (IWM vs SPY)
risk-off
IWM -0.91% vs SPY -0.31% — spread -0.60pp.
Mega-caps doing the lifting — narrow tape, breadth divergence is a yellow flag.
Stocks vs Bonds (SPY vs TLT)
risk-off
SPY -0.31% AND TLT -0.22% — both red.
Cross-asset stress — equities and duration selling in tandem; classic liquidity drain.
Dollar vs Equities
neutral
UUP -0.14% / SPY -0.31%.
Dollar weak with equities down = unusual; could be growth scare in US specifically.
Gold vs Equities
risk-off
GLD -0.81% / SPY -0.31%.
Gold and equities both off — broad de-leveraging.
Credit vs Treasuries (HYG vs IEF, 5d)
risk-on
HYG 5d +0.07% vs IEF 5d -0.79% — spread +0.86pp.
Credit tightening / risk premia compressing — bullish for equities.
Growth vs Value (factors)
neutral
VUG +0.13% vs VLUE -0.21% — spread +0.34pp.
Growth/Value roughly tied — no factor regime signal.
Momentum vs Min Vol
risk-on
MTUM +0.77% vs USMV -0.71% — spread +1.48pp.
Trend-followers in control — leadership names extend, junk reflation often follows.
Cross-Sector Synthesis
The cross-sector tape is leaning risk-off. Cyclicals vs Defensives: Cyclicals (-0.89%) are leading Defensives (-1.06%) by 0.18pp. Mixed leadership — the tape can't pick a regime. Discretionary vs Staples: XLY -1.78% vs XLP -0.55% (spread -1.23pp). Consumer rotating defensive — Staples bid is a late-cycle warning. Semis vs Software (AI capex theme): SMH +1.99% vs IGV -1.75% — spread +3.74pp. Hardware/infrastructure leg of AI is bid — capex theme intact, hyperscaler spend cycle on.
Moving-Average Events
Industry death crosses: Restaurants, Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods; Industry 200d reclaims: Insurance Brokers, Personal Care Products, Automotive Parts & Equipment, Automobile Manufacturers, Aerospace & Defense; Industry 200d losses: Automotive Parts & Equipment, Aerospace & Defense, Construction Materials, Broadcasting, Automobile Manufacturers; Industry EMA(12/26) bull crosses: Application Software, Automotive Retail, Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, Research & Consulting Services, Health Care Facilities; Industry EMA(12/26) bear crosses: Construction & Engineering, Electronic Manufacturing Services, Leisure Products, Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation, Apparel Retail. Stock-level: 8 new golden crosses, 8 new death crosses across the S&P 1500 in the last 5 sessions.
News Flow
Catalysts driving the tape
120 relevant headlines across 5 sources, theme-tagged.
Headlines grouped by what's actually moving the market: geopolitics, Fed/macro, AI/tech, earnings, energy, regulation. Each headline is tagged to the sectors it most likely impacts. Urgency markers (!) indicate market-moving signals.
Geopolitics
12
Fed / Macro
8
AI / Tech
12
Earnings
12
Energy / Oil
4
China / Trade
4
Healthcare
2
Crypto
10
Mergers & Acquisitions
3
Regulation
5
Layoffs / Labor
8
Narrative
Sector Commentary
GPT-5.4 commentary grounded in the market inputs for this session.
Energy led the session at +1.76%, while Materials lagged at -2.62%, with ITB -3.97% setting the thematic tone.
Energy +1.8%
Energy led the sector leaderboard at +1.76% as the strongest large-cap gainers were ANET +8.76%, SMCI +7.31%, VLO +6.26%.
Materials -2.6%
Materials was the weakest major group at -2.62% with pressure concentrated in PANW -4.88%, VRTX -4.56%, BKNG -4.21%.
Themes — Home Construction -4.0%
ITB moved -3.97% on the day and -8.20% over 5 days, giving the market a clear read on thematic leadership.
Factor & Regime +0.8%
Momentum led the factor complex at +0.77% while Low Vol trailed at -1.38%. Market signal registered RISK ON at +0.80.
Industry Leaders — Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing +6.7%
At the GICS sub-industry level, leadership came from Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing +6.70%, Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals +5.25%, Internet Services & Infrastructure +3.40%. Universe breadth: 62% of S&P 1500 names above their 50-day MA, 64% above the 200-day.
Industry Laggards — Consumer Finance -5.2%
Weakest sub-industries today: Consumer Finance -5.17%, Homebuilding -4.51%, Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials -4.21%.
Moving-Average Cross Events +0.0%
Industry death crosses: Restaurants, Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods; Industry 200d reclaims: Insurance Brokers, Personal Care Products, Automotive Parts & Equipment, Automobile Manufacturers, Aerospace & Defense; Industry 200d losses: Automotive Parts & Equipment, Aerospace & Defense, Construction Materials, Broadcasting, Automobile Manufacturers; Industry EMA(12/26) bull crosses: Application Software, Automotive Retail, Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, Research & Consulting Services, Health Care Facilities; Industry EMA(12/26) bear crosses: Construction & Engineering, Electronic Manufacturing Services, Leisure Products, Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation, Apparel Retail.
Geopolitics +0.0%
12 active headlines tagged Geopolitics. Top items: [CNBC] Dow slides more than 570 points as oil spikes and Trump threatens another attack on Iran: Live updates; [CNBC] Jim Cramer sees a big risk to the bull market resurfacing — and it's not the Iran war
Fed / Macro +0.0%
8 active headlines tagged Fed/Macro. Top items: [CNBC] Fed officials were split on direction of interest rates at last meeting, minutes show; [CNBC] Fed meeting minutes to show 'family fight' over rates. The squabble could drag on for a while
AI / Tech +0.0%
12 active headlines tagged AI/Tech. Top items: [CNBC] Micron stock jumps 15% as soaring prices from AI boom lead to quadrupling of revenue; [CNBC] Dell stock skyrockets 32% for its best day ever as AI server revenue soars
Earnings Tape +0.0%
12 active headlines tagged Earnings. Top items: [CNBC] Darden Restaurants earnings beat estimates but Olive Garden growth weakens; [CNBC] Levi Strauss beats quarterly expectations, raises guidance and dividend
Sector Breadth
Energy
+1.76%
Technology
+1.24%
Cons. Staples
-0.55%
Utilities
-0.74%
Industrials
-1.07%
Health Care
-1.30%
Communication Svcs
-1.41%
Real Estate
-1.65%
Cons. Discretionary
-1.78%
Financials
-1.93%
Materials
-2.62%
Top Movers
ANET
ANET
+8.76%
SMCI
SMCI
+7.31%
VLO
VLO
+6.26%
MPC
MPC
+5.39%
PSX
PSX
+5.02%
PANW
PANW
-4.88%
VRTX
VRTX
-4.56%
BKNG
BKNG
-4.21%
WDAY
WDAY
-4.02%
ZS
ZS
-3.98%
Scan Output
Full Breakout Table
Composite score combines relative strength, base quality, trend structure, and stage confirmation.
# Ticker Name Sector Score RS Base Trend Stage 2 Price 52W High vs High Avg Vol Vol/Avg
1 APLS Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Healthcare
80.9
96.1 50.0 100.0 ✓ $41.03 $41.12 -0.2% 7.3M 2.35x
2 AMD ★ 3d Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $517.41 $580.91 -10.9% 35.8M 0.78x
3 DDOG ★ 3d Datadog, Inc. Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $261.09 $277.49 -5.9% 6.1M 0.66x
4 DELL ★ 3d Dell Technologies Inc. Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $431.97 $465.96 -7.3% 9.2M 0.78x
5 HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company Technology
65.0
99.9 0.0 100.0 ✓ $44.67 $55.99 -20.2% 27.8M 0.63x
6 HUM ★ 3d Humana Inc. Healthcare
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $396.29 $409.42 -3.2% 1.6M 0.75x
7 MRVL ★ 3d Marvell Technology, Inc. Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $231.71 $316.43 -26.8% 45.7M 0.69x
8 MU ★ 3d Micron Technology, Inc. Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $948.80 $1213.37 -21.8% 54.5M 0.89x
9 SNDK Sandisk Corporation Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $1727.18 $2335.00 -26.0% 13.0M 0.98x
10 STX Seagate Technology Holdings plc Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $860.02 $1093.26 -21.3% 4.6M 0.98x
11 WDC Western Digital Corporation Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $550.30 $746.23 -26.3% 8.9M 0.88x
12 ARWR Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Healthcare
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $85.74 $86.97 -1.4% 2.1M 0.94x
13 ROIV Roivant Sciences Ltd. Healthcare
65.0
96.1 4.6 100.0 ✓ $36.09 $36.31 -0.6% 6.2M 0.83x
14 VSTS Vestis Corporation Industrials
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $14.16 $14.83 -4.5% 1.7M 0.71x
15 VSAT Viasat, Inc. Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $74.00 $89.81 -17.6% 2.7M 1.15x