MorningSignal
Research Platform
2026-08-25
The close was risk-on, but the causal driver was disinflation rather than a clean growth breakout. USO fell 4.58% as markets weighed Iran-Oman efforts around Hormuz and the prospect of improved tanker flows despite new U.S. sanctions. That oil reversal eased the inflation premium, lifted TLT 1.10%, and let SPY, QQQ and IWM gain 0.32%, 0.62% and 0.42%. VIX at 15.45 and firm credit confirm that this was a constructive stock-bond rally, not a growth scare. Leadership was concentrated. Communications Equipment rose 2.98%, Semiconductors 2.21% and SMH 1.65% as NVDA +2.19%, MRVL +4.84% and SMCI +9.35% rebounded before Nvidia's Wednesday report. Biotechnology gained 2.63%, with XBI +3.00% and MRK +3.84%. Against that, Construction & Engineering fell 5.91%, Specialty Stores 3.51%, and Energy 1.66%. Cybersecurity also failed to participate: HACK -1.35%, ZS -4.34%, PANW -3.13% and CRWD -2.78%. Cross-asset signals support selective risk. High Beta +1.63% and Momentum +0.60% beat Low Vol -0.49%, while the dollar proxy slipped 0.07%, GLD gained 0.32% and BITO added 0.28%. Yet only 53.5% of S&P 1500 constituents are above their 50-day average, versus 70.7% above the 200-day, and just 18.8% of semiconductor constituents are above the 50-day. The long-term trend is healthy; the intermediate rebound is still narrow. Three industry golden crosses—Insurance Brokers, Personal Care Products and Application Software—offer selective confirmation, but the new Automotive Parts death cross shows why broad index strength should not be mistaken for uniform participation. Positioning: keep exposure to AI hardware and biotech leaders, pair it with underweights or hedges in weak software/cyber, and avoid adding energy until crude stabilizes. Nvidia's report is the immediate catalyst. The bullish view is falsified if Nvidia cannot validate AI-capex expectations, if USO reverses today's drop, or if high beta loses its 2.12-point advantage over low vol. Construction should remain on the avoid list until lost 200-day support begins to recover.
| Symbol | 1d | 5d | MTD | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | S&P 500 | +0.32% | — | — | +12.71% |
| QQQ | Nasdaq 100 | +0.62% | — | — | +16.19% |
| IWM | Russell 2k | +0.42% | — | — | +20.78% |
| DIA | Dow Jones | +0.30% | — | — | +11.62% |
| EFA | Dev ex-US | +0.72% | +1.44% | +2.63% | +13.90% |
| EEM | EM | +1.72% | +2.92% | +4.56% | +20.20% |
| FXI | China | +0.03% | +1.43% | -2.47% | -10.03% |
| Symbol | 1d | 5d | MTD | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | 20+y UST | +1.10% | +2.22% | +1.56% | -1.52% |
| IEF | 7-10y UST | +0.54% | +0.62% | +0.74% | -0.43% |
| LQD | Inv Grade | +0.64% | +0.96% | +0.71% | -0.37% |
| HYG | High Yield | +0.28% | +0.49% | +0.77% | +2.54% |
| JNK | Junk | +0.26% | +0.48% | +0.79% | +2.82% |
| Symbol | 1d | 5d | MTD | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | Gold | +0.32% | +7.41% | +15.16% | +7.48% |
| SLV | Silver | +0.19% | +8.50% | +18.80% | -5.22% |
| USO | Crude | -4.58% | -3.45% | +3.30% | +82.93% |
| UNG | Nat Gas | +0.79% | +1.29% | +1.19% | -15.17% |
| DBA | Agriculture | -0.07% | +0.89% | +1.76% | +10.64% |
| Symbol | 1d | 5d | MTD | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UUP | US Dollar | -0.07% | -0.71% | -0.82% | +3.06% |
| FXE | Euro | +0.14% | +0.90% | +1.52% | +0.18% |
| FXY | Yen | -0.02% | +0.26% | -1.49% | -1.64% |
| BITO | Bitcoin | +0.28% | +22.11% | +23.52% | -13.75% |
| Industry | 1d | 5d | YTD | Quad | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communications Equipment | Information Technology | +2.98% | -2.59% | +65.93% | N/A |
| Biotechnology | Health Care | +2.63% | +10.28% | +42.95% | N/A |
| Technology Distributors | Information Technology | +2.61% | -0.91% | +47.33% | N/A |
| Gold | Materials | +2.52% | +16.47% | +26.45% | N/A |
| Electronic Components | Information Technology | +2.22% | -6.70% | +47.16% | N/A |
| Semiconductors | Information Technology | +2.21% | -5.04% | +58.29% | N/A |
| Electronic Manufacturing Services | Information Technology | +1.99% | -7.52% | +31.25% | N/A |
| Passenger Airlines | Industrials | +1.92% | -0.75% | +0.57% | N/A |
| Construction & Engineering | Industrials | -5.91% | -11.72% | +15.80% | N/A |
| Specialty Stores | Consumer Discretionary | -3.51% | -2.48% | +12.88% | N/A |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | Consumer Discretionary | -2.60% | -2.51% | -5.87% | N/A |
| Broadline Retail | Consumer Discretionary | -2.22% | -0.44% | +3.74% | N/A |
| Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Energy | -2.09% | +0.08% | +26.03% | N/A |
| Leisure Facilities | Consumer Discretionary | -2.02% | -0.50% | +13.22% | N/A |
| Footwear | Consumer Discretionary | -1.98% | -2.21% | +11.70% | N/A |
| Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | Energy | -1.97% | -4.84% | +89.38% | N/A |
| Other Specialty Retail | Consumer Discretionary | -1.90% | +0.71% | -18.42% | N/A |
| Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail | Consumer Staples | -1.73% | +1.05% | +16.40% | N/A |
| Food Retail | Consumer Staples | -1.60% | +2.34% | +17.96% | N/A |
| Insurance Brokers | Financials | -1.41% | +5.61% | +0.85% | N/A |
| Heavy Electrical Equipment | Industrials | -1.41% | -6.11% | +34.77% | N/A |
| Restaurants | Consumer Discretionary | -1.30% | +3.43% | +16.75% | N/A |
| Commodity Chemicals | Materials | -1.29% | -1.63% | +29.43% | N/A |
| Oil & Gas Drilling | Energy | -1.14% | -2.69% | +60.85% | N/A |
| Water Utilities | Utilities | -1.11% | +0.95% | +19.38% | N/A |
| Health Care Technology | Health Care | -1.10% | +0.05% | -6.56% | N/A |
| Research & Consulting Services | Industrials | -1.08% | +2.29% | -10.61% | N/A |
| Packaged Foods & Meats | Consumer Staples | -1.08% | +1.58% | +0.20% | N/A |