2026-08-05
Daily Report
2026-08-05
The index tape masked a defensive, earnings-driven rotation: Health Care and Materials advanced while Energy, Communication Services, and Technology weakened, but calm volatility, firm credit, and broad long-term participation kept the larger regime Risk-On.
SPY -0.20% QQQ -0.90% 15 qualifying setups
Market Signal
RISK ON
Score 0.75
Generated
2026-08-05 16:38
Static build timestamp
Leaders
Health Care
Best-performing sector today
Lagging
Energy
Weakest sector on the tape
Overview
Index & Macro Snapshot
Core benchmarks, volatility, and curve shape for the session.
S&P 500
$769.79
-0.20% today · +13.28% YTD
Nasdaq 100
$717.30
-0.90% today · +17.27% YTD
Russell 2000
$299.77
-0.64% today · +21.00% YTD
Dow Jones
$542.81
+0.44% today · +13.11% YTD
VIX
15.81
-23.48% over 5d
10Y Treasury
4.62%
Long-end benchmark
2Y Treasury
3.73%
Policy-sensitive front end
2s/10s Curve
+89bps
Normal / steepening
Tape Read
What's Moving Markets Today
Daily strategist letter and the cross-sector spreads behind today's tape.
Strategist Letter · 2026-08-05
Morning Note
The close produced a split tape: DIA gained 0.44%, but SPY fell 0.20%, QQQ 0.90%, and IWM 0.64%. Health Care (+1.27%) and Materials (+1.23%) led while Energy (-2.07%), Communication Services (-1.04%), Utilities (-1.02%), and Technology (-0.53%) lagged. The mechanism was rotation rather than broad stress: minimum volatility and quality outperformed momentum, TLT rose 0.22%, and GLD gained 4.14%, yet VIX remained low at 15.81, credit stayed firm relative to Treasuries, and 67%/71% of measured constituents remained above their 50-/200-day averages. Within industries, Multi-line Insurance, Health Care Distributors, and Managed Health Care led; Telecom Tower REITs, refining, Health Care Services, and technology hardware lagged. The actionable view is to preserve the Risk-On regime but reduce marginal exposure to crowded momentum and require price confirmation before adding Energy. Watch QQQ and IWM relative to SPY, HYG versus IEF, VIX, and 50-day breadth over the next several sessions. A recovery in growth and small caps with stable credit would confirm rotation without regime damage; simultaneous credit weakening, VIX expansion, and breadth below 50% would invalidate that view.
Cyclicals vs Defensives
mixed
Cyclicals (-0.01%) are lagging Defensives (+0.07%) by 0.08pp.
Mixed leadership — the tape can't pick a regime.
Discretionary vs Staples
risk-on
XLY +0.30% vs XLP -0.05% (spread +0.35pp).
Consumer is risk-on — the household balance-sheet trade is working.
Semis vs Software (AI capex theme)
neutral
SMH -1.04% vs IGV -0.68% — spread -0.36pp.
AI complex moving in tandem — no relative dispersion within the theme.
Energy vs Utilities
neutral
XLE -2.07% vs XLU -1.02% — spread -1.05pp.
Disinflation/duration bid; long-bond proxy outperformance signals lower-rates regime.
Small caps vs Large caps (IWM vs SPY)
risk-off
IWM -0.64% vs SPY -0.20% — spread -0.44pp.
Mega-caps doing the lifting — narrow tape, breadth divergence is a yellow flag.
Stocks vs Bonds (SPY vs TLT)
neutral
SPY -0.20% / TLT +0.22% — inverse.
Classic stocks/bonds correlation working — risk-on means TLT down, risk-off means TLT up.
Dollar vs Equities
neutral
UUP -0.25% / SPY -0.20%.
Dollar weak with equities down = unusual; could be growth scare in US specifically.
Gold vs Equities
risk-off
GLD +4.14% / SPY -0.20%.
Defensive rotation into gold while equities sell — flight-to-quality, watch credit too.
Credit vs Treasuries (HYG vs IEF, 5d)
risk-on
HYG 5d +0.84% vs IEF 5d +0.49% — spread +0.35pp.
Credit tightening / risk premia compressing — bullish for equities.
Momentum vs Min Vol
risk-off
MTUM -1.08% vs USMV -0.01% — spread -1.07pp.
Defensive crowding — Min-Vol bid signals investors paying for stability over upside.
Cross-Sector Synthesis
The session was defensive beneath the surface, not systemically risk-off. SPY fell 0.20%, QQQ 0.90%, and IWM 0.64%, while DIA gained 0.44%; minimum volatility beat momentum by 1.07 percentage points, TLT rose 0.22%, and GLD surged 4.14%. Yet the VIX held at 15.81, HYG continued to outperform IEF over five days, 67% of the measured universe remained above its 50-day average, and 71% remained above its 200-day average. That combination points to rotation and profit-taking in crowded growth and energy trades rather than a broad liquidation. Positioning should therefore shift at the margin, not flip regimes: favor Health Care areas with confirming breadth and keep exposure to long-term leaders where price remains above primary trend. Require confirmation before adding Energy or high-momentum technology. The defensive-session thesis strengthens if credit weakens, VIX rises above its recent range, and breadth loses 50%; it is falsified if QQQ and IWM recover relative to SPY while momentum reclaims leadership without a volatility or credit shock.
Industry Rotation
Leadership was concentrated in Multi-line Insurance (+3.09%), Health Care Distributors (+2.96%), Managed Health Care (+2.56%), and Life Sciences Tools & Services (+2.27%). The opposing breaks in Telecom Tower REITs (-4.69%), refining (-4.24%), Health Care Services (-4.12%), and technology hardware (-4.03%) show that stock and sub-industry selection mattered more than the headline sector labels.
Explore the full industry view →
Moving-Average Events
Industry golden crosses: Transaction & Payment Processing Services, Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials, Interactive Home Entertainment, Health Care Distributors; Industry death crosses: Broadcasting; Industry 200d reclaims: Application Software, Specialty Chemicals, Building Products, Health Care Equipment, Interactive Media & Services; Industry 200d losses: Automotive Parts & Equipment, Financial Exchanges & Data, Electric Utilities, Automotive Retail, Research & Consulting Services; Industry EMA(12/26) bull crosses: Automobile Manufacturers, Passenger Airlines, Home Improvement Retail, Electronic Equipment & Instruments, Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods; Industry EMA(12/26) bear crosses: Restaurants, Casinos & Gaming, Electric Utilities, Multi-Utilities, Investment Banking & Brokerage. Stock-level: 15 new golden crosses, 6 new death crosses across the S&P 1500 in the last 5 sessions.
News Flow
Catalysts driving the tape
129 relevant headlines across 5 sources, theme-tagged.
Headlines grouped by what's actually moving the market: geopolitics, Fed/macro, AI/tech, earnings, energy, regulation. Each headline is tagged to the sectors it most likely impacts. Urgency markers (!) indicate market-moving signals.
Geopolitics
11
Fed / Macro
7
AI / Tech
12
Investing.com Stocks !! HIGH Technology
Seeking Alpha Markets ! MED Technology
Earnings
12
Energy / Oil
6
China / Trade
5
Healthcare
12
Crypto
11
Investing.com Stocks !! HIGH Technology
Mergers & Acquisitions
2
Regulation
1
Layoffs / Labor
1
Earnings Tape
Reporting today
2 watchlist names from the EPS calendar.
Ticker Name Sector Reports Surprise
LLY Eli Lilly and Company Healthcare 2026-08-05 —
DIS Walt Disney Company (The) Communication Services 2026-08-05 —
Narrative
Sector Commentary
Active Codex task commentary grounded in the market inputs for this session.
The index tape masked a defensive, earnings-driven rotation: Health Care and Materials advanced while Energy, Communication Services, and Technology weakened, but calm volatility, firm credit, and broad long-term participation kept the larger regime Risk-On.
Health Care +1.3%
Health Care led at +1.27%, with MCK +5.64%, LLY +4.86%, AMGN +4.57%, DHR +2.51%, and TMO +2.32% confirming that leadership extended across distribution, biopharma, and life-science tools rather than resting on one stock.
Energy -2.1%
Energy was the weakest sector at -2.07%; EOG -6.47% and MPC -4.75% were consistent with the -4.24% refining and -3.70% exploration-and-production sub-industry moves. The selloff is a near-term momentum break, not yet a structural one, because both energy sub-industries remain positive year to date.
Commodities — Gold +4.1%
GLD moved +4.14% on the day and +5.00% over 5 days, giving the market a clear read on thematic leadership.
Factor & Regime -1.1%
Momentum lagged the factor complex at -1.08% while minimum-volatility and quality were nearly flat. That one-day defensive rotation conflicts with, but does not yet overturn, the +0.75 Risk-On composite supported by a 15.81 VIX, positive credit trend, broad index trend, and a +89bp 2s10s curve.
Industry Leaders — Multi-line Insurance +3.1%
At the GICS sub-industry level, leadership came from Multi-line Insurance +3.09%, Health Care Distributors +2.96%, Managed Health Care +2.56%. Universe breadth: 67% of S&P 1500 names above their 50-day MA, 71% above the 200-day.
Industry Laggards — Telecom Tower REITs -4.7%
Weakest sub-industries today: Telecom Tower REITs -4.69%, Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing -4.24%, Health Care Services -4.12%.
Moving-Average Cross Events +0.0%
Industry golden crosses: Transaction & Payment Processing Services, Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials, Interactive Home Entertainment, Health Care Distributors; Industry death crosses: Broadcasting; Industry 200d reclaims: Application Software, Specialty Chemicals, Building Products, Health Care Equipment, Interactive Media & Services; Industry 200d losses: Automotive Parts & Equipment, Financial Exchanges & Data, Electric Utilities, Automotive Retail, Research & Consulting Services; Industry EMA(12/26) bull crosses: Automobile Manufacturers, Passenger Airlines, Home Improvement Retail, Electronic Equipment & Instruments, Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods; Industry EMA(12/26) bear crosses: Restaurants, Casinos & Gaming, Electric Utilities, Multi-Utilities, Investment Banking & Brokerage.
Geopolitics +0.0%
11 active headlines tagged Geopolitics. Top items: [CNBC] E.l.f. Beauty sees $50 million windfall in tariff refunds as profits surge 100%; [CNBC] Pinterest shares fall on lukewarm sales guidance
Fed / Macro +0.0%
7 active headlines tagged Fed/Macro. Top items: [CNBC] From a Fed decision to Big Tech earnings: What drove last week's volatile market; [CNBC] Google DeepMind's Demis Hassabis to move to chairman role from CEO
AI / Tech +0.0%
12 active headlines tagged AI/Tech. Top items: [CNBC] An overlooked player in data center buildout delivers once again; [Investing.com Stocks] Bitcoin reclaims 200MA and Ichimoku cloud: Live levels
Earnings Tape +0.0%
12 active headlines tagged Earnings. Top items: [CNBC] Uber reports weaker than expected guidance: The Investment Committee's strategy; [CNBC] Uber stock sinks 5% after weak guidance despite revenue growth
Sector Breadth
Health Care
+1.27%
Materials
+1.23%
Cons. Discretionary
+0.30%
Financials
+0.21%
Real Estate
+0.07%
Industrials
-0.03%
Cons. Staples
-0.05%
Technology
-0.53%
Utilities
-1.02%
Communication Svcs
-1.04%
Energy
-2.07%
Top Movers
BKNG
BKNG
+6.56%
MCK
MCK
+5.64%
LLY
LLY
+4.86%
AMGN
AMGN
+4.57%
ANET
ANET
+3.57%
EOG
EOG
-6.47%
UBER
UBER
-5.29%
MPC
MPC
-4.75%
SMCI
SMCI
-4.32%
GOOGL
GOOGL
-4.03%
Scan Output
Full Breakout Table
Composite score combines relative strength, base quality, trend structure, and stage confirmation.
# Ticker Name Sector Score RS Base Trend Stage 2 Price 52W High vs High Avg Vol Vol/Avg
1 EA ★ 5d EA Communication Services
78.2
52.4 92.1 100.0 ✓ $209.70 $209.91 -0.1% 3.3M 3.98x
2 DD ★ 3d DD Basic Materials
69.8
59.4 78.0 75.0 ✓ $147.37 $153.36 -3.9% 1.5M 2.08x
3 ARWR ★ 7d Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Healthcare
69.3
100.0 12.2 100.0 ✓ $86.91 $89.59 -3.0% 2.3M 0.69x
4 BAX ★ 3d Baxter International Inc. Healthcare
67.2
73.8 36.2 100.0 ✓ $27.33 $28.35 -3.6% 7.0M 1.72x
5 CRI CRI Consumer Cyclical
66.7
61.7 48.5 100.0 ✓ $39.95 $43.75 -8.7% 976K 1.80x
6 PCG PG&E Corporation Utilities
66.5
47.7 64.1 100.0 ✓ $17.20 $19.00 -9.5% 19.9M 1.71x
7 ILMN Illumina, Inc. Healthcare
65.5
81.3 22.8 100.0 ✓ $199.87 $205.10 -2.5% 2.0M 1.46x
8 DDOG Datadog, Inc. Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $283.17 $288.15 -1.7% 5.0M 1.00x
9 DELL Dell Technologies Inc. Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $462.70 $467.27 -1.0% 9.3M 0.64x
10 HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $53.22 $55.99 -4.9% 28.6M 0.67x
11 PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $362.66 $366.34 -1.0% 7.8M 0.84x
12 VSAT Viasat, Inc. Technology
65.0
100.0 0.0 100.0 ✓ $81.03 $89.81 -9.8% 2.9M 1.02x
13 CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. Technology
64.2
98.1 0.0 100.0 ✓ $209.86 $211.22 -0.6% 11.5M 0.74x
14 ROIV Roivant Sciences Ltd. Healthcare
64.2
91.6 7.4 100.0 ✓ $34.60 $36.81 -6.0% 5.5M 1.00x
15 BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Company Healthcare
64.0
59.2 43.8 100.0 ✓ $63.63 $65.89 -3.4% 13.2M 1.51x